Petrol prices in Nigeria could rise to about N1,400 per litre this week as marketers await a possible repricing of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) by the Dangote Refinery amid rising crude oil prices, supply constraints and logistics challenges.
Multiple industry sources said petrol loading had been halted at the refinery, raising expectations that a fresh ex-depot price adjustment could be announced as early as today.
The development follows a recent surge in international crude oil prices linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have increased feedstock costs for refiners and tightened supply across global energy markets.
With pump prices already averaging N1,200 in some parts of the country, marketers said the price may hit N1,400 per litre as crude oil races towards $100 per barrel.
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) said none of its members was able to load petrol from the refinery on Sunday.
The National President of PETROAN, Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, confirmed the situation, saying marketers are waiting for clarity on the refinery’s next pricing decision.
Gillis-Harry said: “Today we didn’t load and we are not sure what will happen tomorrow. It is because of the possibilities around crude oil prices. The price of crude is not stable; it can go up or come down. Until the crisis in the Middle East de-escalates
Sources at the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) also told The Guardian that loading activities had been suspended at the facility while industry players await a possible price revision.
Similarly, the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO) confirmed that tanker drivers were not loading products from the refinery, noting that only a limited number of marketers, including MRS and NNPC Retail, were reportedly allowed to lift products.
An industry player, Jide Pratt, said the expected repricing may reflect prevailing international crude oil prices rather than the refinery’s previous ex-depot benchmarks.
He noted that the refinery has faced challenges sourcing sufficient crude locally, forcing it to rely on imported supplies.
“This shows the risk of having a single dominant supply source for the market,” he said.
However, the Dangote Group dismissed claims that loading had been halted.
The Group’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, described the report as “nonsense”, insisting that product pricing would continue to reflect prevailing international market conditions.
RETAIL market checks conducted by The Guardian across major filling stations in Lagos showed that PMS continues to sell above the N1,000 per litre threshold, with pump prices ranging between N1,015 and N1,057 per litre, depending on location and supply pathway.
At Mobil filling station in Idowu Egba along LASU–Isheri Road in Lagos, petrol was sold at N1,015 per litre, while Petrocam station dispensed fuel at N1,050 per litre.
Similarly, MRS filling stations sold PMS between N1,030 and N1,040 per litre in parts of Alimosho, while Mobil outlets at Alaguntan and Iyana Ipaja sold petrol at N1,015 and N1,057 per litre, respectively.
Other retail outlets reflected similar pricing trends. Heyden stations in Iyana Ipaja and along Zik House on the Oshodi–Abeokuta Expressway sold PMS at N1,035 per litre, while Northwest station in Onigbongbo, Maryland, dispensed the product at N1,030 per litre.
Market sources indicated that the difference between coastal marine product lifting arrangements and gantry loading operations is gradually shaping distribution pricing behaviour across the downstream petroleum supply chain.
According to data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, the ex-depot price of PMS in Lagos currently ranges between N940 and N1,000 per litre, reflecting cost pressures confronting marketers in sourcing and distributing the product.
The association’s latest energy bulletin showed that Nigeria’s estimated import parity price for petrol averaged about N748.46 per litre over the past 30 days, while spot market prices rose to about N910 per litre, underscoring the volatility in international petroleum trading.
For many motorists, however, these technical pricing explanations provide little immediate relief.
Commercial driver Ibrahim Lawal, who operates along the Iyana Ipaja–Oshodi corridor, said the latest price movement may compel transport operators to review fares once again.
“Fuel is now over N1,000 per litre in many stations. Every time the price changes, transport fares must go up
Another motorist, Saheed Adeyemi, who frequently refuels at stations around Alimosho, lamented the growing uncertainty surrounding pump prices.
“Some stations sell for N1,030, others for N1,050, and sometimes even higher. As motorists, we now spend time driving from one station to another looking for cheaper fuel,” he said.
Recent market intelligence from MEMAN indicates that international crude benchmarks remain elevated, with Brent crude trading around $85 per barrel and Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude hovering above $83 per barrel, levels historically associated with upward pressure on refined product prices.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery explained that crude procurement costs remain high, noting that Nigerian crude is currently trading about $3 to $6 above the Brent benchmark. When freight charges of approximately $3.50 per barrel are included, landing costs could range between $88 and $91 per barrel.
The refinery noted that crude previously landed at about $68 per barrel when domestic ex-depot pricing was closer to N774 per litre, illustrating the sensitivity of local prices to international market fluctuations.
The company also disclosed that it currently receives about five cargoes of crude monthly from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, a volume considered below the estimated 13 cargoes required monthly to sustain large-scale domestic distribution.
The supply shortfall compels additional crude procurement through international trading channels at prevailing foreign exchange market rates, further exposing the domestic market to currency volatility.
The refinery said it continues to absorb about 20 per cent of the recent cost escalation to moderate the immediate impact on consumers, although industry operators say sustained market stability may depend on improved crude supply logistics and foreign exchange predictability.
Commercial drivers operating in Lagos noted that even marginal differences of N10 to N20 per litre across stations significantly affect daily operating margins, forcing many to shuttle between outlets in search of relatively cheaper fuel.
